A migráció szerepe a demográfiai kihívások kezelésében

Abstract

Demographic estimates project a shrinking population in the European Union after 2030. This trend is already evident in some countries, including our own. The shrinking population, together with the increase in life expectancy, will lead to a reduction in the number of people of active age and an ageing society. This places a significant burden on health and social systems and threatens the sustainability of pension systems. At the same time, there is a trend towards a slow but steady increase in emigration on the whole world. Migration is partly climatic and partly geopolitical, both between and within regions. A significant part of it is directed from less developed to more developed areas. A general finding of migration research is that rapid labour market integration is one of the foundations for the social integration of migrants. It is likely that in developed countries migration is not only a problem but also a solution to existing or emerging demographic phenomena. It could pop up that – in parallel with the volume of immigration increases – the nationality distribution of arriving immigrants in developed countries will become more diverse, which could, in principle, facilitate socio-economic integration. Therefore, after outlining the main trends in European migration, the paper attempts to provide a comprehensive picture of migration trends relying on a hypothesis test based on a secondary analysis of the UN migration database. Keywords: migration, inclusive society, labour shortages, labour market integration